Description: Shortly before warning about an ongoing military coup in the country, Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina has reportedly fled the country, plunging Madagascar further into instability. The initial reports published by French media sources indicated that in previous agreement with President Emmanuel Macron, Rajoelina was flown to an airstrip where he was transferred to a flight to Dubai while several of his close associates fled to Mauritius. Rajoelina addressed the Malagasy people through a live Facebook stream from an undisclosed location and claimed that certain fractions of the country’s political opposition and units within the military were plotting his assassination and he was forced to flee. He also urged the protesters and the wider civilian public in the country to adhere to the country’s constitution, however, he refused to announce his resignation. The elite military unit CAPSAT seized power in the country, flocking the police forces and the gendarmerie in their orbit of influence while calling for a calm transition of power towards the people of Madagascar. The presence of the soldiers on the streets of the capital Antananarivo was welcomed by the wider public as they jointly gathered to commemorate the 22 deceased people who have lost their lives during the three weeks of civil unrest.
Impact: The President’s disappearance under immense domestic pressure creates an oscillating transitional period in the country and facilitates a power vacuum which is currently controlled by the country’s military. Early indications regarding the military’s assertion in the country’s government are positive, however, similar scenarios have unfolded in the country’s past which indicate that the military forces propel to power or are more likely to install the next government in the country. Rajoelina is currently in an effective exile and has lost all political capital in the country due to his refusal to resign in a civilized manner. The Malagasy military currently holds all the power capital in the country, and its immediate next steps would dictate the future of the political and economic stability in the country. The situation under the current constellation of factors is extremely volatile as the military could opt to seize complete power or choose to launch early election campaign to preserve the country’s constitutional order and protect democratic rights. The country is on the precipice of a major political and socio – economic transformation which presently could be easily transcended by the military forces.