Description: Only a day after officially declaring the military as the de – facto governing entity in the country, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, the leader of the special military unit CAPSAT, announced that he would become the country’s next President. According to his statements, he is expected to be sworn into office on 17 Oct by the High Constitutional Court, a government body which he claimed the military dissolved the day prior. Randrianirina’s background was one of controversial and mysterious nature as not much information regarding his past was publicly available. He is a career military member and a vocal critic of ousted President Andry Rajoelina, his criticism prompted the former President to imprison Randrianirina in 2023 on accusations of inciting a coup and a mutiny leading to an eventual domestic crisis. His peers, however, described him as a simple and a pragmatic individual with straightforward ideas complemented by immense respect and dedication to his country. Randrianirina’s ascendancy to power caused the African Union to ban Madagascar from the organization, until democratic rule is restored in the country. The military leadership has stated that a council of its most senior members would lead the country in the next two years alongside a civilian – led government while elections would be organized sometime in the next 12 to 24 months. The international community has expressed concerns over the volatility of the situation with UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres stating that the situation had to be stabilized in quick succession to the appointment of the new government. Russia has warned that bloodshed and unrest had to be avoided at any cost, while France expressed concerns over the military leadership in the country.
Impact: The appointment of Colonel Michael Randrianirina was the next logical step in the dismantlement of the previous governmental apparatus in Madagascar after the military seized full control of the country. Madagascar’s ban from regional organizations such as the African Union is a preemptive move made by the organization’s leadership and doesn’t indicate that the country would plunge into chaos once again. The situation has stabilized and the military contrary to the traditional views on military coups has offered a sobering perspective towards the governmental and socio – economic restructuring of the country. Currently there are no indications of immediate instability, however, the 2 – year governing period the military announced would represent a major transitional timeframe which would have to be concentrated on reinstating the country’s civilian government and jumpstarting the economy. The Gen Z Mada protest movement hasn’t offered potential successors to Rajoelina after the military ceases its rulership which signals that the country’s electoral process alongside other concepts of nation building capacities would have to be restored in the next two years.