Description: The governments of Greece and Italy have repeatedly warned about growing security threats from Libya, which in large part is led by the Russian – aligned leader, Khalifa Haftar. Greek naval forces have started regular patrolling duties across the Mediterranean as the number of illegal migrants continues to grow. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has recently suspended the processing of asylum applications citing capacity reasons and Russia and Turkey’s weaponization of migration. Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has regularly pointed out that Libya was Russia’s next proxy hub in Africa as growing Russian influence was evident by the parading of Russian weapons in Benghazi. Italy, similarly to Greece, also has painstaking problems with migration as the government is also experiencing a surplus of illegal migrants mostly coming from North Africa.
Impact: Libya has been significantly destabilized by the numerous security and humanitarian crises along eastern and western Africa and represents a major hub for illegal migration. The warnings from Italy and Greece are complementary with recent strategic navigation by Russia and Turkey which are focusing on establishing influential presence in the country through cooperation in sectors such as energy exploration and security. Russia has already imbedded ties with the influential leader Khalifa Haftar which indicates the country’s regional ambitions have started to take shape. Russian interests in Libya might be impeded by the war in Ukraine, however, the weaponization of migrants and extensive military cooperation demonstrates already established influential ties in the country, which in turn poses a significant security risk for European countries which are faced with inconclusive laws and mechanisms for tackling the migration crisis.