Description: Following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party is expected to choose its next leader and subsequently Japan’s next Prime Minister for the upcoming period. Ishiba’s resignation came as a result of LDP’s losses in both votes of Parliament, the Upper and the Lower Houses, which forced the party to rule from a position of minority and be obliged to form a coalition larger than the one with its junior partner Komeito in order to introduce legislature. The most likely candidates to succeed Ishiba are Sanae Takaichi, who marginally lost the last leadership election to Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, the current Minister of Agriculture and Tourism and the party’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi. Takaichi leads the early polling for LDP’s next leader as her previously condemned conservative positions on same sex marriages and Japan’s stance on security threats such as China, which she considers existential. Koizumi and Hayashi are the two alternative candidates, with Koizumi polling low for struggling to resolve Japan’s rice crisis issue, while Hayashi standing with a mild but yet threatening chance to endanger Takaichi’s bid for LDP’s leadership.
Impact: Ishiba’s resignation precipitated a revolving political crisis in Japan which has been straddling the country’s economy and geopolitical positioning for the past 10 years. The country is faced with unreliable partner in the US, which has conditioned their bilateral partnership through tariffs and growing security threats from the expanding alliance between China, Russia and North Korea in the region. Losing the majority government, Ishiba has also created divisions within the LDP as they would be looking to stabilize Japan facing turbulent conditions on the international stage. Among the candidates expected to succeed Ishiba, Takaichi and Hayashi enjoy the most internal support from the party’s influential circles. Currently, there are no indications that Japan could transpire towards a political crisis, despite the growing popularity of far – right parties such as Sanseito, with LDP expected to remain the political entity retaining the prime ministerial office in the next two years, terminating Ishiba’s projected term.