Description: Diplomatic tensions between Japan and China have rapidly escalated after Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, stated that Japan could militarily intervene in case of a Chinese invasion on Taiwan. Ever since, bilateral relations have taken a downward turn, with China threatening to prohibit its citizens from visiting Japan by offering remuneration packages to already booked travel arrangements. Japan in return has warned its citizens in China to take special care when transiting in public spaces. More recently, Chinese coast guard ships sailed in the vicinity of the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu islands and were encountered by Japanese ships. China also flew drones across another disputed point between Taiwan and the island of Yonaguni while Japan responded by scrambling fighter jets. Foreign ministries on both sides have issued notes of protest recalling their official representatives and holding discussions in private. China has demanded from Takaichi to withdraw her statements and maintain its position of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan, while Japan has stated that Prime Minister Takaichi was speaking about a hypothetical scenario and her comments were taken out of context. Japan remained adamant that China’s issue with Taiwan should be resolved through resorting towards diplomacy rather than military force.
Impact: The high-level diplomatic confrontation enlightened major differences between the two Asian countries that could translate and materialize towards naval and military escalation if the tensions don’t start to simmer down. Takaichi’s statements arrive after she met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last month, where the leaders vowed to normalize ties. Considering the economic and geopolitical repercussions, Japan would most probably commit towards gradual deescalation of the ensued bilateral tensions with China following suit. In the interim the countries could also adopt a more aggressive stance towards each other which would reflect through enhanced military and naval posturing in the disputed island and maritime regions in the Pacific. Japan is highly reliant on Chinese tourists and the country’s vast rare earth mineral potential which Japan considerably uses in the development of its automotive industry which signals that the Japanese side would undertake the deescalation efforts first. China also can’t risk further escalation of the issue since it would endanger their long – term objectives in the region, mostly regarding Taiwan as well as force Japan to undertake a less neutral position regarding the ongoing bilateral disputes concerning islands and maritime trade routes.