Description: Israel’s Ultra – Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party has announced their exit from the ruling coalition due to issues over military conscription laws that would ensure members of the community to serve and join the Israeli military. The law, which exempted the Ultra – Orthodox from mandatory military service has been one of Netanyahu’s pressure points within his own government, as the Prime Minister is also facing corruption charges and mounting divisions within his own Likud party. Shas, the second largest Ultra – Orthodox party in the ruling coalition could follow the UTJ in exiting the government and effectively force Netanyahu to rule with a minority government or call for snap elections before the projected regular elections in Oct 2026. UTJ has given the government two days to discuss restating provisions guaranteed to Ultra – Orthodox members according to the exemption law before finally abandoning the coalition. The political turmoil arrives at a crucial period for the Gaza ceasefire talks which could collapse along with Israel’s government.
Impact: Internal political pressure and crumbling governing coalition could force Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to succumb to far – right elements within his own government which are enforcing the continuation of the war and practically collapse the Gaza ceasefire talks. Netanyahu is also faced with corruption charges and reportedly pressure from US President Trump to end the war in Gaza which considerably compromises his standing within the governing coalition, having prolonged the war and failed to secure the remaining Israeli hostages held in Hamas’ captivity. Potential political crisis would lead to indefinite prolongation of the Gaza ceasefire talks and the ongoing war coupled with the devastating humanitarian crisis in the enclave. The Israeli Prime Minister could also potentially agree towards political concessions demanded by the Ultra – Orthodox, in order to avoid debilitating the governing majority within Israel’s parliament in an attempt to avoid the collapse of the ruling majority and the risk of snap election.