Description: The US – mediated ceasefire in Gaza survived its most serious test after clashes broke out in Rafah between armed Palestinian factions and the Israeli Defense Forces. Hamas has stated that communications were disrupted with its armed factions operating in the southern parts of the Gaza Strip since the war was reinitiated in Mar and denounced any connections with the militants attacking IDF positions across the Yellow Line. The humanitarian corridors in the region remained closed due to the intense armed clashes which resulted in the deaths of two Israeli soldiers and more than 40 Palestinians. IDF stated that its soldiers came under surprise fire from unidentified militants crossing the predetermined line of fire or the Yellow Line which represented a serious violation of the previously agreed ceasefire. The attacks came after the US issued an intelligence warning on 18 Oct regarding the high level of potential for the ceasefire to be violated. US President Donald Trump despite the difficulties and the armed fighting stated that the ceasefire was still in effect and both parties are expected to commit substantial efforts in honoring the provisions of the agreement.
Impact: The current security state in the Gaza Strip represents a significant threat to the longevity of the ceasefire agreement as numerous armed factions are engaged in a power struggle for territorial control while Hamas is conducting public executions and information gathering operations in the Strip, attempting to counter the armed opposition. The continuous armed fighting is disabling the entry of the necessary humanitarian aid and is risking renewed military occupation by Israel in light of Hamas’ lack of outreach and capacities to establish control in the Strip. After Trump’s visit in Egypt, diplomatic efforts have also been stalled with plenty of sticking points still awaiting prolonged negotiations and solutions. The armed militants in the Strip could further dissuade Hamas to commit to its disarmament efforts which would significantly backpedal any considerable progress made so far. The situation remains sensitive, however, publicly declared willingness by both Israel and Hamas to uphold the ceasefire ensures its continuity in the short to mid – term period of time.