Description: Israel and Iran continued to exchange aerial attacks as US President Donald Trump maintained speculations over joining Israel in attacking Iran. Speaking to the press in the White House, Trump stated that he still might consider a direct US intervention in the war if the Iranians didn’t agree towards complete cessation of hostilities and halting their uranium enrichment activities. Foreign ministers from the E3 group of countries reportedly shelved a proposition to kickstart direct negotiations with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva on Friday, 20 Jun. The proposition is yet to be responded by the Iranians as their Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has categorically denounced Trump’s request for total surrender. The war of words and missiles continues with the US still mulling whether direct military intervention is of strategic value at present time. Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking at a business conference in St. Petersburg stated that Russia was prepared for hands on diplomacy in order to intermediate potential ceasefire between the warring countries in a joint effort with the US. Pressure mounts over Trump’s indecisiveness to attack Iran, as political divisions in his own party as well as calls from the Democrats weigh in on the President’s decision.
Impact: Trump’s current restraint and reluctance to offer a decisive course of action over the war signals potential broadened backchannel negotiations which are ongoing and are away from the public eye. Media reports indicated that a concrete plan for attacking Iran was already set in motion as the working group handling the crisis awaited Trump’s approval. The potential repercussions from a US direct military inclusion into the war are endless as the attack would further push Iran into an operational chokehold while the public outcry and the political battle for survival would probably prompt the regime to aggressively start building and developing a nuclear weapon. Last ditch efforts are pouring from European countries and Iran’s allies such as China and Russia in order to make a diplomatic solution more possible under the current conditions in the war. Trump at this point might be persuaded by elements within its own political camp to intervene, which would irreversibly put the Middle East in a revolving crisis for years to come. Considering the public pressure not to put the US on a prolonged course of war in the Middle East, Trump might also devise a diplomatic solution directly or through mediated channels which would further confound the outcome of the war but would provide a healthy baseline going forward in ensuring the halting of the hostilities.