Description: On the third day of war, the US – Israeli attacks on Iran intensified with Israel launching airstrikes in Lebanon and expanding ground operations in the country. Iran also responded with counterattacks, targeting the Gulf states where several critical infrastructure targets were hit including Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and QatarEnergy refineries in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, which have since suspended operations. Iran also struck hotels, airports and other civilian targets while also striking the US military bases in the region. US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth has stated that this was a time – limited operation expected to last not more than a month, reiterating previous statements made by President Trump. As a response to the growing attacks on its bases, air defense systems and the entire military and political power structure in the country, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and expanded its attacks which reached the British base Akrotiri located in Cyprus. Pro – Iranian protests have erupted on several locations across Iraq, while in Pakistan more than 30 people were killed in Lahore and Karachi.
Impact: The crisis in the Middle East would expand across several countries causing global market disruptions in major industries such as oil and gas, travel and supply chain industry with war-imposed inflation and rising of costs of living expanding globally. The conflict would also have long – term strategic implications especially in the multilateral relations between Iran, China and Russia, as well as between the Gulf states, the US and Israel. The military operations would continue in the time span of one to six weeks while deescalation attempts are expected to take shape within the next two weeks. Asian energy markets are expected to be impacted the most with the closure of the Strait of Hurmuz with European countries experiencing the second wave of energy crisis due to Europe’s dependence on imports of energy resources. Iran’s internal disbalance, combined with the military operations against the country would cause reverberating consequences on the Middle East and a prolonged crisis which would expand long after the US and Israeli kinetic operations.