Description: The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, in a televised interview for CBS stated that distrust, skepticism and diplomatic rifts still remain in place between the US and Iran amid the frail ceasefire imposed by US President Donald Trump. The post war shockwaves and Trump’s pressing towards immediate diplomatic engagement only pushed the Iranians far away from rapprochement with their arch enemy. Israel has remained on the sidelines regarding the assessments surrounding the damage inflicted by the US attacks on Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites but reconfirmed they would attack Iran again if information about the renewed development of the nuclear program emerges. Iran’s rejection to cooperate with IAEA inspectors and their heavy public criticism to IAEA’s Director General, Rafael Grossi, further spells escalation of tensions which threatens the lifespan of the ceasefire. The trilateral standstill remains in place as multiple unknowns prevail over the future of the Middle East in case of reengaged hostilities.
Impact: Recent developments have indicated that all three countries are agreeing to remain in a stagnant position regarding the war and following the enforced ceasefire. Iran would remain on the sidelines for the time being, having garnered little to no support from its allies such as China and Russia and having suffered majority of the losses in the 12 – day war. Israel’s alleged ambitions of toppling the Islamic regime in Iran have flattened due to the fractured opposition and the uncoordinated approach of the country’s main political entities criticizing the regime. The US show mixed signals regarding renewed negotiations after Iran’s rejection to immediately engage in talks which indicates the Trump administration is actively monitoring the situation and biding its time when to reengage being by force or through renewed nuclear talks. Iran’s nuclear program remains a mystery as no concrete assessment on the damage of the US strikes has been published which complements the portfolio of variable factors influencing the region’s future stability.