Description: Pakistan, alongside Turkey and Egypt framed a peace proposal which was delivered to both the US and Iran. Shortly after deliberating on the proposal, Iran firmly rejected it stating that its aim was to give respite to the US and Israeli war on the Islamic Republic. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s perspective and threatened to target critical infrastructure, effectively collapsing Iran’s economy. Israel meanwhile expanded attacks on Lebanon, where an airstrike killed a prominent member of the Christian party and a staunch critic of Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy group in the country. Israeli airstrikes also successfully targeted Iran’s natural gas producing fields in the South Pars island where an IRGC – linked petrochemical factory was struck. Iran meanwhile intensified negotiations with Oman for jointly administrating the Strait of Hormuz and delivered a counterproposal to the mediators which outlined the complete cessation of military aggression in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, compensation for the sustained damages from the war, the lifting of sanctions and official recognition of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian administration.
Impact: Iran’s rejection of the peace proposal further exposes the country to sustained US and Israeli airstrikes which would highly likely plunge the conflict into a revolving state of escalation. Trump’s threats of targeting critical and civilian infrastructure, although highly illegal, could prompt Iran towards various countermeasures, such as activating militant proxy groups across the Middle East, sleeper cells across the US and Europe, raising the number of its aerial campaign across the Gulf and even instructing the Houthis to block the Bab El Mandeb Strait, causing further global economic implications. Continued diplomatic efforts, although necessary, are highly unlikely to deliver a productive reconciliation, even temporarily, at this stage of the conflict. Iran’s counterproposal would highly likely be rejected outright, since it heavily favors Iran’s priorities and eventual result of the war. Continued campaign of escalation should be expected with all warring parties using all means necessary to maintain or improve their position in the war.