Description: The newly appointed Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, has stated that the Iranian regime was ready to agree towards concessions regarding the country’s enrichment ambitions in return for sanctions relief. The information arrives after Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, scheduled renewed nuclear negotiations with Europe’s E3 group of countries which are expected to take place on 25 Aug. According to Larijani’s statements, Iran was ready to agree towards lowering the level of uranium enrichment from the projected 90% to 20% while continuing negotiations to prevent the imposition of the snapback sanctions mechanism at Europe’s disposal. In contrast, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has stated that Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain unchanged and currently, there was no possibility in discussing the country’s nuclear status with the US directly, as issues regarding credibility and trust remained present. Khamenei also reiterated previous statements and claimed that Iran was fully capable of resisting another wave of attacks from Israel or the US.
Impact: Conflicting statements from high level officials among the Iranian regime confirm suspicions that Iran’s fractured government is facing substantial level of internal divisions which could potentially be exploited by foreign actors such as the US and Israel in an attempted takeover of the ruling regime. Larijani’s statements fall under the reformist wing of Iran’s political establishment, which is led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, while Khamenei’s statements maintain the Islamic regime’s radical stance towards compromises regarding the country’s nuclear ambitions. The oppressive mechanisms of the ruling regime spearheaded by the IRGC and the Basij militia currently maintain a firm grip on Iran’s internal opposition and potential fractures within the ruling government, which denounces the possibility of some form of revolutionary transformation or coup de etat. Compromising with Europe is presently Iran’s most favorable option of exiting the nuclear dispute and benefiting from the sanction relief. The mixed signals from Iran’s government compromise the country’s negotiating position which gives the E3 group of countries marginal period for reimposing the sanction mechanism if Iran does not commit towards enrichment concessions.