Description: Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, signed a cooperation agreement with IAEA Director General, Raffael Grossi in Cairo resuming inspections by IAEA on Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites. The agreement was signed under Egyptian mediation as stated by the country’s Foreign Minister, Badr Abdelatty and months of nuclear diplomacy following the joint Israeli and US attacks in Jun. The agreement arrives after the E3 group of countries announced their intent to reimpose the snapback sanctions within 30 days if Iran doesn’t comply with demands outlined by the US, Europe and the nuclear watchdog. Araghchi stated that provisions within the agreement were only valid if aggression was out of the equation and in case Israel or the US regresses towards military action, Iran would once again abandon their commitments towards the IAEA. Grossi stated the agreement was a substantial step forward and a potential groundwork for a comprehensive agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Impact: The agreement considerably decreases diplomatic pressure on Iran and contributes towards reaching a terminal solution for the country’s disputed nuclear program. Details regarding the agreement weren’t available, which indicates in practical terms that the agreement represents only a guardrail and a method for delaying the snapback sanctions mechanism for the time being. The document also defuses escalated tensions in the region after recent reports indicated that Israel is replenishing its undisclosed nuclear capacities at the Damona nuclear site, while the IAEA also discovered remnants from a potential nuclear program being developed in Syria by the former Assad regime. By allowing the IAEA back into the country, Iran has ensured diplomatic continuity of the process and established a relatively transparent channel for future concessions in order to avoid the reimposition of sanctions. Considering the volatility of the Iranian nuclear issue, all conditions factoring into the resolution of the issue signal potential for formulating a comprehensive agreement with Iran, however, a negative outturn of events remains largely possible.