Description: US President Donald Trump stated that a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian crisis is still possible if the regime in Tehran was willing to address the longstanding bilateral disputes seriously. Trump previously warned and conditioned Iran with reengaging with the US diplomatically to address the issues with Iran’s nuclear program and its robust stockpile of ballistic missiles. Iran responded with threats but remained open to the idea of diplomatic contact. Turkey in the interim stated that its Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, met with his counterpart, Abbas Araghchi as they discussed potential mediation between Iran and the US in the potential upcoming negotiations. Last week, USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear – powered aircraft carrier entered the region alongside 10 other guided missile destroyers capable of launching airstrikes everywhere across Iran from the sea. The Gulf states alongside Turkey have also been engaged in deescalating the situation while shielding themselves from responsibility by prohibiting the US to use their skies to attack Iranian military targets. Europe also joined the diplomatic pressure campaign, designating the IRGC a terrorist organization, sanctioning more than 15 Iranian officials, a move that was heavily criticized by the regime in Tehran.
Impact: The rapid recession towards diplomacy indicates that Iran’s regime, for the time being, has passed its resiliency test and the US is once again using the opportunity to offer a last – ditch non – violent resolution to the crisis. The deadly protests in Iran, bolstered the international position to resort towards a pressure campaign which would either force the regime to negotiate or precipitate enough public outrage to cause a high – level internal crisis. The proverbial diplomatic ball is in Iran’s court, which is politically divided but religiously united as illustrated through the deadly protests, where the repressive narrative of the authoritarian regime prevailed over the moderate political fractions in the country. Three factors crucially impact the short to mid – term result of the crisis, mediation from regional countries, Iran’s objective will and preparedness to negotiate and the level of military buildup the US musters in the waters encircling Iran. The mediators would prefer to enforce a negotiated settlement which could objectively force Iran to negotiate in which case the immediate effect of the crisis would result in a protracted negotiations process that would deliver more uncertainty than resolve.