Description: Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is set to visit China, Japan and Russia in the upcoming period as India’s rift with the US has subsequently led to 50% of tariff rates on Indian exports to the US in the past couple of weeks. US President Donald Trump initially imposed 25% tariffs on India and raised the rates under the pretext that India imported vast amounts of oil from Russia which it later resold, making billions on the global market and supporting the war in Ukraine. India’s response has also been harsh as Modi’s administration has been reluctant to reengage with their US counterparts in trade talks. India and China have recently mended bilateral ties through formally resolving a territorial dispute which in 2020 led to a brief armed confrontation between the two Asian countries. Japan, also one of the world’s leading economies, could represent a favorable market for Indian exports as Modi has recently hinted of a closer cooperation while visiting one of Suzuki’s larger factories in India.
Impact: India’s versatile strategic portfolio enables the country to act as a balancing force on the Asian continent between major global geopolitical rivals such as China and the US. China expediently exploited the escalation of tensions between India and the US to recuperate diplomatic ties and reinvigorate economic cooperation, which presently attracts India to lean towards China’s sphere of global influence. Russia has used India as a dumping ground for its sanctioned oil, practically enabling vast circumvention of international sanctions by offering India favorable prices for a key energy resource. Japan and India are tied through the QUAD partnership with Australia and the US, which could be used as a negotiating tool to force or draw India back to the negotiating table on trade with the US. China is unlikely to draw India towards the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as an instrument for distancing its Asian rival away from its western ties as bilateral ties despite being reconfigured are still in a fragile state. Modi is facing pressure from political rivals domestically over the trade tensions with the US, which would most probably push India towards concluding a trade deal with its largest trade partner despite current political and diplomatic posturing.