Description: Guyanese state officials have reported that ships transporting election ballots and personnel were attacked in the contested Essequibo region by Venezuelan border forces. Guayana hasn’t reported any casualties or damages while Venezuela has renounced the accusations. Tensions arrive in the midst of Guayana’s parliamentary and presidential elections where incumbent President Irfaan Ali and his People’s Progressive Party (PPP) are expected to triumph. Ali has utilized Guayana’s oil deposit findings and campaigned on continuation of the country’s infrastructural, educational and industrial development. The PPP is contested by the A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) party led by Aubrey Norton and the emerging We Invest in Nationhood (WIN) founded by the controversial and sanctioned businessman, Azruddin Mohammed. The country’s election commission is expected to report the results on Wednesday, 03 Sep, avoiding a potential political blockade reminiscent from the last election cycle in 2020.
Impact: The initial reignition of bilateral tensions between Guayana and Venezuela started in May, where abrupt armed confrontations were reported around the disputed Essequibo region. The recent confrontations are unlikely to impact the elections or the country’s upsurgence in becoming an emerging petrol – state economy. President Irfaan Ali has carefully navigated around accusations from his political opponents of benefiting from the country’s oil economic boom by concentrating oil revenues in domestic investments into infrastructure and education. His PPP holds a marginal majority in parliament which could be challenging if the contesting opposition, such as the APNU or WIN, emerge as potential coalition partners. The country’s oil industry portfolio is also fractioned with oil giants such as ExxonMobil, Hess and China’s CNOOC dominating the Stabroek offshore block. Guyana is expected to expediently chose its new government, however, tensions over the crucial Essequibo region remain a bilateral dispute with Venezuela which is under severe US scrutiny in the form of sanctions and border military buildup, which in turn keeps the region in a perpetual state of elevated tensions potentially endangering investment opportunities and regional security stability.