Description: The European Union has introduced its 19th package of sanctions on Russia targeting more vessels pertaining to Russia’s shadow fleet and imposing travel restrictions to Russian diplomats across European countries. The US, in what is perceived as the largest diplomatic step towards pressuring Russia, sanctioned the country’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, in response to recent diplomatic overtures between Trump and Putin which led to the postponement and subsequent cancellation of the leaders’ summit in Budapest. The sanctions announcement by the US Treasury Department arrived as NATO’s Secretary General, Mark Rutte, had a meeting with US President Trump to discuss further steps in the war in Ukraine. Putin defied the impact of the sanctions and just a day earlier oversaw an ICBM (Inter – continental ballistic missile) nuclear test as a response to the upcoming sanctions package. In response to the sanctions some of China’s largest oil companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Zhenhua Oil have ceased their supplies of Russia oil imports in the short – term. India has also started revising its contracts with Rosneft and Lukoil and halted direct imports of oil from both companies.
Impact: The US and its European allies have resorted towards a well – know and familiarized pressure strategy which has so far given limited results in regard to the war in Ukraine. The US President expressing grave frustration with Putin’s reluctance to commit towards concrete steps such as an immediate ceasefire, has stepped up economic pressure to coerce the Russian leader closer to the negotiating table. Immediate effects from the sanctions are not expected to be felt as Russia has devised an intricate network of alternative methods for exporting its sanctioned oil and gas products, however, if subsequent sanctions are introduced affecting facilitators or collaborators of the circumvention methods, the Russian wartime economy could face its biggest challenges of remaining afloat since the start of the war. Trump is also exploiting the sanctions to untangle trade differences with China and India which are one of the largest importers of Russian oil in a period when Trump is set to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US – India trade negotiations are ongoing. The effect of the sanctions would materialize only if the US and Ukraine’s NATO allies follow them up with substantial military support in enhancing Ukraine’s offensive and defensive capabilities.