Description: France, Germany and the UK have triggered the UN’s snapback sanctions mechanism on Iran over their disputed nuclear program. The announcement arrives after reported failed attempts to draw out concessions from the Islamic Republic regarding their enhancement of uranium enrichment capabilities. The snapback mechanism outlined a flurry of sanctions which would be imposed within 30 days – time if Europe, the US and Iran fail to conclude a comprehensive agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Sanctions within the mechanism undertook sectors such as arms trade, the freezing of foreign assets, control and seizure of all products pertaining to Iran’s domestic production capabilities, and strict bans on uranium enrichment and development processes. Russia, China and previously the E3 group have proposed a resolution to extend the deadline for the reimposition of sanctions for up to 6 months in order to facilitate favorable diplomatic conditions for reaching a potential agreement.
Impact: Iran has been effectively pushed into an impossible situation where internal divisions within the country between the hard – line conservatives and the moderates could precipitate large – scale domestic instability. The country is still consolidating from the consequences of the 12 – Day War, where Iran lost most of its defensive capabilities and key figures within its military and political echelon. Conservative and nationalistic sentiment predominates the country’s foreign policy circles where the hardline stance towards the West remains as the only resolution and response to the pressure from the international community. The snapback mechanism could plunge the country’s depleted economy into further disarray which would in turn cause wider divisions within its military and political wings and an expedient escalation in public upheaval. The next 30 days would be crucial, where Iran’s nuclear issue would represent a field for diplomatic proxy wars between the western bloc of countries and Iran’s staunchest allies such as Russia and China as they exert their influence on the global stage. Depending on the result of Iran’s internal political battle for dominance, the nuclear issue would be eventually concluded through either a potential consensus with the West or renewed conflict and crisis in the Middle East.