Description: Foreign representatives from the E3 group of countries met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva where the parties failed to reach a consensus on Iran’s nuclear program but decided to resume negotiations in the near future. Germany, the UK and France threatened Iran with the snapback sanctions mechanism if the country failed to uphold concessions regarding its enrichment capabilities, accounting for the missing stockpile of uranium after the 12 – day war and reengage in negotiations with the US. Russia meanwhile has filed a motion to the UN Security Council to postpone the imposition of the snapback sanctions if an agreement hasn’t been reached by the end of the month. The motion outlies a six – month postponement of instigating the sanctions in order for a deal between the E3 and Iran or potentially between the US and Iran to be reached. IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi, stated that a team of inspectors has entered Iran as per discussions held between Iran and the E3 in Geneva.
Impact: The issue of Iran’s disputed nuclear program enters a renewed cycle of diplomatic posturing through the negotiations with the E3. The precise impact of the sanctions reimposition is unknown, however, Iran is faced with existential water and energy shortages, and additional sanctions could potentially compromise and further deteriorate the country’s embattled economy. Indirect backchannel concessions have been evidently made, as IAEA inspectors are set to return to Iran’s enrichment sites and continue their activities. Immediate progress is an unlikely scenario, while some sort of a modification to Russia’s postponement motion would most probably be introduced as negotiations have stalled while the risk of disengagement with Iran could renew tensions with the US and Israel and potentially elevate the risk for a renewed conflict.