Description: Local sources have reported that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) launched drone strikes which killed one person and injured another in the areas of Enticho and Gendebta, 20km from the Tigray region where last week, clashes erupted between the ENDF and the Tigra People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The clashes were focused on the Tsemlet area, which is disputed between the TPLF and the Amhara armed forces. The eruption of clashes prompted the suspension of flights and the closure of financial institutions. Ethiopia suffers from a severe humanitarian crisis after the suspension of USAID as humanitarian organizations report that more than 80% of the country’s population is in dire need of essential aid and assistance. The fighting could potentially diminish the progress made by the African Union in 2022, where Ethiopia and the TPLF signed the Praetoria Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, ending the Tigrayan civil war which started in 2020.
Impact: Considering the expected uptick in violence, caused by a year of tensions between the ENDF and the TPLF, complemented by the humanitarian crisis, the situation in Ethiopia is volatile but still far from receding towards a full-blown civil war. Taking into account the immediate medium scale precautionary measures that were undertaken after the eruption of violence, the tensions are in a state of fluctuation that could spiral towards a larger scale of warfare or deescalate towards renewed diplomatic efforts to counteract the violence. The spiraling humanitarian crisis adds to Ethiopia’s devastated socio – economic system and could catalyze armed groups and rebels such as the TPLF or the Amhara rebel forces towards renewed fighting. Depending on the involvement from regional organizations such as ECOWAS or the African Union, the renewed spike of violence could push the region into a new devastating civil war or a painstaking peacemaking effort which would have a larger timeframe.