Description: The Congolese military has shot down a plane in the trilateral border area between DR Congo, Rwanda and Burundi, which the rebels have claimed carried humanitarian aid to civilians in the war affected villages. The DRC signed a peace agreement with Rwanda last Friday in Washington which seems to be at risk of faltering since over the past few days, clashes between the rebel forces and the Congolese military have intensified. The rebel alliance in DRC is comprised of over 100 militant groups with the M23 being the most dominant one which hasn’t been included in the signing of the peace agreement. The security and humanitarian situation remains volatile and threatens the longevity of the peace agreement.
Impact: Recent clashes between the rebel forces and the military indicate that the enforced peace agreement is only successful in theory while the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate, potentially plunging the country into a renewed cycle of violence. The exclusion of the M23 rebel group and the larger alliance of the other militant fractions was an instant red flag which could compromise the fragile ceasefire as it is contingent on the interests of the DRC government and the rebel alliance. Awaiting the presidential summit, where the peace agreement would be ratified, the situation on the ground remains severely aggravated and poses a significant risk to the implementation of the peace agreement.