Description: Qatari mediators have announced that representatives from the Congolese government and the M23 rebel movement failed to secure a peace agreement expected to have been concluded by 18 Aug. M23’s spokesperson accused the Congolese government of violating the ceasefire agreement which was part of the provisions under the declaration of principles signed between the two sides in Jul. According to the Qatari mediators despite the suspension of the peace agreement, both sides have expressed preparedness to continue negotiations and conclude the peace agreement as part of a larger peace framework signed between DRC and Rwanda in Jun under US mediation. Congolese local officials also reported that the ISIS aligned terrorist group ADF (Allied Democratic Forces) conducted massacres of civilian population in the past week where more than 50 civilians were killed in the North Kivu province.
Impact: The entire structure of the peace framework conceptualized by the US and Qatar is under severe threat of crumbling after delegations from the DRC and M23 suspended further peace talks. The suspension caused by alleged ceasefire violations positions the entire peace platform under scrutiny and creates a power vacuum evidently exploited by terrorist organizations such as the ADF. The recent upsurge in activities by the ADF is a result of the depleted security capabilities of the Congolese forces who are focused on fighting the M23 and preventing the rebel group from taking control over large portions of territory in the mineral rich eastern regions. The declaration of principles is strongly dependent on the political will from both the M23 and the DRC to uphold to their ceasefire obligations and also lacks pragmatic monitoring mechanisms which further endangers the entire peace framework. The region remains volatile, while the increased degree of activities from terrorist groups such as the ADF escalates the security instability and poses a serious threat to future ceasefire and peace efforts.