Description: The paramilitary guerilla unit, ELN, or the National Liberation Army, has announced that it would cease hostilities over the holiday period and impose a curfew in larger municipalities it controls. The leadership of the organization announced that all members were instructed not to attack military or police outposts and not to cause further armed confrontation during the holiday season. Previously, the ELN kidnapped around 18 soldiers in the Choco Department of Colombia which has become a common practice and a methodology to threaten the government. Tensions between the group and President Gustavo Petro’s government have gradually escalated since Petro ceased to engage in negotiations with the ELN for the group’s disarmament and disbandment at the beginning of 2025. Recent threats from US President Trum, who likened the situation in Colombia with the one in Venezuela, have prompted the ELN to reinforce their presence and intensify operations around territories crucial for drug trade.
Impact: Colombia’s struggle with gang and political violence continues to transpire towards nationwide unrest since the government has proven to have insufficient means to counteract the guerilla group and its fractions. The ELN is one of the oldest guerilla groups on the continent and has been consistently vying for control over drug supply routes and critical junctures which would allow the organization tactical superiority over the Colombian army as it continues to wage its asymmetric warfare campaign. The unilateral ceasefire combined with the kidnapping of the soldiers only proves the vulnerability and the lack of operational security and capabilities of the Colombian army and police forces to subvert ELN’s activities. The situation is expected to escalate and deteriorate even further, endangering a widespread crisis, taking into account the US blockade on Venezuela and the amount of military and naval assets in the region.