Description: Dissidents from the Central General Staff (EMC), an offshoot of the former FARC narco – terrorist group, kidnapped more than 34 soldiers in the El Retorno municipality, located in the southeastern province of Guaviare. The soldiers were conducting a special operation in the region, targeting EMC commanders where several armed confrontations took place which resulted in the deaths of 11 members of the guerilla group and the targeted commander. The escalation of violence follows previous attacks by the EMC and other militant and guerilla groups in Colombia last week, when a police helicopter and an aviation school were targeted in two separate attacks. President Gustavo Petro has vowed to reinforce military presence in Colombia’s rural regions where guerilla groups and drug cartels collude in criminal activities and attacks against government capacities.
Impact: Colombia’s security situation would continue to deteriorate, with guerilla groups and cartels exerting their influence and interoperability in regions where the military and police have limited presence. Colombia has apparent issues with state security capacities in combating domestic militant groups and fighting larger cartel organizations which have considerably sophisticated their operations and equipment in recent years. US military presence in the Caribbean would most likely force these organizations to internally withdraw and use the strategic depth of their country’s geography, such as difficult rural and mountainous areas where security forces would face obstacles in conducting large scale operations. The current conditions indicate that Colombia would be substantially destabilized in the upcoming period, facing multi layered threats from guerilla groups and drug cartels while combating shortages in domestic security capacities.