Description: US Defense Department official, Elbridge Colby, and a close Trump associate, has reportedly started a serious reconsideration of the AUKUS agreement signed by the UK, the US and Australia. The agreement was signed by the three countries in 2021 and is comprised of terms emphasizing enhanced cooperation within fields such as nuclear – powered submarines, cybersecurity and AI development. Despite recent reassurances from US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Colby reiterated that Australia and the UK had to ramp up involvement and investments in order for the partnership to remain relevant. Other members of the Trump administration were equally critical towards the agreement citing concerns over misalignment with Trump’s America First policy agenda.
Impact: The AUKUS agreement is one of the most important trilateral cooperation platforms which advances western interests in the Indo – Pacific. Speculations regarding a potential US exit from the agreement could seriously damage western – allied presence in the Indo – Pacific potentially emboldening China to enlarge its naval footprint in the region threatening supremacy and dominion over smaller countries such as the Philippines, Taiwan and New Zealand. The Trump administration could potentially push for the US to exit the deal under the pretext of costs ineffectiveness and unequal involvement of naval forces and capacities. The move could also be considered as a good will offering by the US to China in their multidimensional diplomatic engagements as the countries have continuously increased presence in the region for the past couple of months causing massive military tensions. Immediate exit by the US is largely unexpected, although without reassurances of future increased involvement by the UK and Australia, the US could potentially scale back its naval and military capacities in the region on the long – term.