Description: The cross-border war entered its fifth day with the Afghan Taliban government claiming they have resisted a Pakistani airstrike on the Bagram military base near Kabul. Pakistan claimed that numerous militants across the shared border were eliminated and the military would continue targeting members of militant and terrorist organizations threatening Pakistan’s national security. The sticking point between the countries was the alleged support that the Afghan Taliban provided to various militant and terrorist groups which have internal running insurgencies on Pakistani territory. Both countries reentered the conflict in late Feb as peace talks failed to deliver a permanent ceasefire. Qatar and Turkey were heavily invested in the mediation efforts with Pakistan and Afghanistan trading blame for the failed diplomatic resolution of the conflict.
Impact: The Afghan – Pakistani cross – border war poses a direct risk to the expansion of instability across the Middle East with the ongoing attacks from the US and Israel on Iran. The Afghan – Pakistani conflict is centralized around a regional power struggle between India and Pakistan and the US and China with constantly shifting alliances that exploit the deteriorated state of Afghanistan as a launchpad for exercising control in the region through militant groups. Pakistan has had a long-lasting history of supporting militant and terrorist groups as a proxy force for exercising control in the region, however, the multi – vectored security crisis in the country, coupled with ongoing insurgencies in Balochistan and longstanding disputes with India, have crippled Pakistan’s ability to neutralize or control these groups. The conflict is expected to continue in the near future with the global attention shifted on Iran, which indicates further deterioration of the security status in southwest Asia and the Middle East.