Description: Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Mutaqqi, arrived in New Delhi on a two – day state visit where he would meet with India’s Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. The meeting marks a historic diplomatic development as India aims at strengthening its regional presence and dominance while dealing with strategic adversaries such as Pakistan and China. India is yet to formally reinstate its diplomatic mission to Afghanistan after closing it in 2023, however, Muttaqi’s visit to the country indicates that devising closer ties in sectors such as security and trade would strengthen international recognition of the Taliban as the country’s legitimate government. Pakistan has accused India of sponsoring Afghanistan’s militant groups across its border and distanced itself from the Taliban – led government in the country in recent years. Pakistan’s Defense Minister recently warned of enhanced escalatory war narrative from India and reiterated the accusations regarding India’s sponsoring of the Pakistani Taliban.
Impact: India’s diplomatic campaign with Afghanistan is exclusively aimed at establishing closer relations with the Taliban – led government in order to keep Pakistan destabilized through the proxy border militant war. Recent shifts in the power dynamics of the region saw India warming up to China while Pakistan has broadened its partnership with the US. The region has been in constant revolving security and political flux, with flashpoints in the disputed Kashmir region and on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The warnings issued by Pakistan’s Defense Minister aggravate tensions and disclose the potential for a renewed armed conflict. India and Pakistan are currently under a US – mediated ceasefire with diplomatic efforts to address the border dispute constantly stalling. Pakistan has experienced severe escalation of militant and separatist attacks in recent months largely attributed to have been sponsored by India. The potential strategic alliance between India and Afghanistan would implode tensions with Pakistan and position the countries on a confrontational path. Instability is expected to escalate through increased number of terrorist attacks mostly concentrated across the Pakistani and Afghan border.