Description: Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah El Sisi, stated that Egypt would provide Saudi Arabia with all necessary military support in their conflict against Yemen’s Houthis. Sisi claimed that Egypt’s support would include troop presence in Saudi Arabia in a defensive capacity and his country would abstain from implicating itself in the conflict in an offensive capacity. Egypt’s Parliament postponed a vote until 26 Oct for the decision, demanding details on concrete engagement, costs and a precise timeline. Sisi’s commitment arrives after Turkey, the UK and France all pledged support for Saudi Arabia. Turkey confirmed that the Mecca defense agreement was in Parliament awaiting ratification, while French President Emmanuel Macron visited Saudi Arabia and confirmed France’s involvement in the country’s defensive efforts against the Houthis. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, claimed that Iran hasn’t received any response from neither the Houthis nor Saudi Arabia regarding Iran’s mediation proposal.
Impact: Egypt’s potential direct military support for Saudi Arabia is highly likely to protect consistent energy supplies and free of navigation through the vital Red Sea shipment corridor. The country’s reluctance to expedite the vote in Parliament likely indicates that Egypt would hedge more towards material support rather than a direct military one. Turkey, the UK and France have all adopted a limited position of assistance for the Kingdom which is likely to also protect energy supplies to Europe in times of a protracted crisis caused by the war in Iran. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to receive direct military support in the immediate term, while the US are likely to resume attacks on Iran, potentially assisting Saudi Arabia in their offensive action against the Houthis in the short to mid – term. The lack of response to Iran’s mediation proposal likely indicates that Saudi Arabia rejects any additional Iranian involvement in the conflict, while the Houthis are pursuing autonomous tactical and strategic objectives in the conflict. The conflict is likely to extend towards the mid – term period considering the lack of transparent diplomatic efforts and foreign military support engagement.