Description: Ethiopia has officially cut diplomatic ties with Eritrea, pronouncing 10 Eritrean diplomats as persona non grata while giving them 48 hours to leave the country. In addition to cutting ties with Eritrea, the Ethiopian government also expelled one Egyptian diplomat and the charge d’affaires of the African Union from the country. Eritrea and Egypt reciprocated, with Eritrea effectively closing its embassy in Ethiopia and expelling Ethiopian diplomats for their country. On the frontlines, the Alliance forces confirmed they launched drone strikes on the country’s capital, Addis Ababa, targeting the ENDF’s headquarters and two international airports. Fighting between the ENDF and the Alliance forces has significantly spread in the Afar region where ENDF forces recaptured the city of Erebti while also closing in on the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle. Local, pro – government militia leader in the Tigray region confirmed the presence of Eritrean military personnel, who were assisting the TPLF on the frontlines.
Impact: Ethiopia’s diplomatic expulsions likely arrive as the result of confirmed foreign interference in the conflict and highly likely raise the prospects of military escalation while downgrading the prospects for diplomatic resolution to the conflict. The confirmed presence of Eritrean troops in the Afar region likely indicates that Eritrea is hedging between full and direct support of the TPLF and other Alliance forces and insulating itself from the conflict. Ethiopia’s expulsion of Egyptian and African Union diplomats likely indicates that Addis Ababa would focus on strengthening its military offensive instead of pursuing a diplomatic and political track for conflict resolution. The conflict is unlikely to spread outside of Ethiopia’s borders in the short – term. The possibility of a wider regional conflict remains likely in the mid to long – term in case the conflict in Ethiopia protracts and forces from neighboring Eritrea and Sudan allied with the Alliance forces provide more direct military support to the TPLF or other armed groups.