Description: Ethiopia’s National Defense Forces (ENDF) have continued advancing towards Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, after officially capturing the southern city of Alamata. Local unconfirmed reports claimed that the ENDF deliberately targeted civilians in the region while a drone strike launched by the military killed more than 12 people. Alliance forces reportedly targeted ENDF airport bases with drones such as Harar Meda Air Base in Bishoftu, 35 miles southeast of Addis Ababa. Other strikes on military airports in Addis Ababa, Semera and Bahir Dar were also conducted, however, the Alliance’s involvement was not confirmed. The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement (BPLM), two of the seven groups in the Alliance, have stated that although they support the Alliance’s political goals, they wouldn’t join the military offensive against the federal government. Unconfirmed information also indicated that Eritrea’s military was directly involved in the conflict, deploying troops from at least three divisions on the border with the Afar region in Ethiopia. Eritrea’s information minister subsequently denounced the accusations claiming that Ethiopia’s government attempted to shift the blame for the latest conflict from itself to its neighbors.
Impact: ENDF’s advances highly likely indicate the military’s strategy is to operationally disintegrate the Alliance forces which would subsequently lead towards a potential political fallout. The Alliance forces likely pivoted towards a strategy of spreading the conflict on several fronts, attempting to encircle the ENDF as they advance through central Tigray. The use of drones by the Alliance forces highly likely confirms the claims of foreign support which in turn likely escalates the possibility of the conflict’s expansion outside of Ethiopia’s borders. The statements from the ONLF and BPLM, likely indicate that despite having a solid political basis, the Alliance forces are unlikely to be unified in the organization’s military endeavors. This could likely provide the Ethiopian government with an opportunity to engage these groups through political dialogue and work towards the political and military fracturing of the Alliance. The current indicators combined with unconfirmed information of Eritrean troops on the border, highly likely indicate that armed confrontations are going to escalate in the short to mid – term, with hotspots in Tigray and Afar.