Description: Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed al – Ansari, met separately with Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi on 28 Sep when he conveyed messages between the US and Iranian team within the latest round of mediated negotiations. The talks arrive only days after President Trump rejected the latest Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Araghchi stated that Iran remained adamant on the nuclear question and insisted on gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as the first step in the negotiations. Qatari mediators officially conveyed the US response to the latest Iranian proposal today, according to which Iran and the US remained at odds over the order of actions. Trump stated that negotiations would continue into next week through the mediators, however, he also claimed that a renewed military campaign was also an option in the short – term.
Impact: The stalemate between the US and Iran is highly likely to remain within the next two months, while both countries attempt to impose stricter concessions conditions. The Trump administration is unlikely to risk a renewed military campaign in the next two months, despite Trump’s continued statements of renewed military campaign. Considering the high level of domestic unpopularity for the Iranian war and the Republican Party’s degrading ratings in the polls for the midterm election, the US is likely to resort towards further diplomatic posturing and economic pressure. Iran is likely constrained in options by its decadent economy but has numerous options within the next two months. They are unlikely to instigate another round of attacks, however, they are likely to leverage proxy groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, PMF coalition in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon to gain a more favorable position in the negotiations. After the midterm election, the likelihood of renewed conflict dramatically increases, depending on the state of negotiations.