Description: Following a 2024 agreement between the US and Iraq and after more than two decades of military presence, the last US troops from Baghdad are expected to withdraw by 30 Sep. The last troops withdrawal would mark the end of operation Inherent Resolve, the US – led campaign against ISIS launched in 2014 and would potentially leave a security vacuum in the country. Iraq’s Prime Minister, Ali Al Zaidi, following the withdrawal extended the period of disarmament in the country for non – state armed groups and militias until 30 Jun 2027. Iranian – backed groups in the country known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada have firmly rejected the government’s call for disarmament. Iraqi officials also warned from the threat of Islamic State (IS) sleeper cells, which might reemerge in light of the US withdrawal. Military and strategic partnership between the US and Iraq would remain active as the withdrawal is part of a wider US strategy to gradually decrease troop presence across the Middle East. US Secretary of State earlier this month warned that Iraq faced a Balkanization scenario, where numerous militant fractions could use the state of the security situation in the country to gain and expand influence.
Impact: The US troop withdrawal highly likely leaves a security vacuum in the fragmented security landscape in Iraq. Iranian – backed militias and proxy groups would highly likely expand and increase their influence and consolidate military power in the short to mid – term period. This would likely allow Iran to use these groups to influence domestic and foreign policies in Iraq and use its presence in the country as a bargaining chip for the ongoing negotiations with the US. The Islamic State terrorist group is unlikely to launch a full – scale mobilization and reemergence, however, the threat of terrorist attacks would highly likely increase considering the US withdrawal and the decentralized security landscape in Iraq. Following a US withdrawal there is a realistic possibility of Turkey expanding its influence in Iraq. Turkey’s increasing energy partnership with Iraq is likely to transform towards a military one in the mid to long – term period, considering Turkey’s developing defense sector and regional geopolitical ambitions.