Description: Myanmar’s military junta launched airstrikes on a busy marketplace in Rakhine State, killing at least 28 people and injuring additional 36. The Arakan Army, the most influential anti – government force in the region, claimed that over 50 civilians have been killed in the airstrike, blaming the junta for indiscriminately targeting the local civilian population. The junta’s spokesperson restated the government’s position that all these rebel groups are terrorists, and government forces are explicitly targeting military capacities not civilians. Myanmar’s President, Min Aung Hlaing, despite his political push for legitimacy in China and Thailand and calls for negotiations with the rebel groups has continued to target his own civilian population. The UN estimated that more than 4 million people were displaced while the number of deaths in the conflict surpassed 100 thousand.
Impact: The attack likely indicates that in spite of the junta’s aerial superiority, the rebel groups maintain their active ground presence in the country’s border regions and continue to wage successful asymmetrical warfare against the government. China’s intimate involvement in the conflict is highly likely going to increase through further support for the junta which is attempting to connect the rebel – controlled border regions with the center of the country. The rebel groups are unlikely to succumb to the military and financial pressure from the junta and China which likely indicates the civil war would maintain its current pace in the short to mid – term period. As long as wartime conditions work in favor of China’s regional economic interests, the civil war in Myanmar would likely continue, as China holds a dominant role in the conflict and is likely able to resolve it in case it serves the country’s national interest.