Description: Yemen’s Houthi rebels have renewed their aerial attacks on Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh and on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in the port city of Yanbu. Saudi Arabia has claimed that all missiles have been successfully intercepted and no damage was registered from the attacks. Pakistan’s and Turkey’s ministers of defense confirmed their support for Saudi Arabia, claiming that collective provisions from the Mecca defense agreement would be met by both allies of Saudi Arabia. Defense officials met in Riyadh where they discussed military assistance and the expansion of trilateral cooperation. The Houthis have issued a separate warning to Pakistan and Turkey that joining Saudi Arabia’s war would cause irreversible consequences to both countries. French President Emmanuel Macron, pledged to deploy French military assets to Saudi Arabia in order to engage in defense operations against Houthi attacks on energy facilities.
Impact: The war between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia is likely entering a proactive phase where Saudi Arabia would aim to leverage its aerial dominance, while the Houthis would aim to maintain their territorial gains which they have achieved so far. Turkey and Pakistan are likely to support Saudi Arabia through military aid, supply of equipment and intelligence sharing, however, it is highly unlikely that Turkish or Pakistani troops would be deployed to Saudi Arabia to engage in combat with the Houthis. Pakistan’s military is almost certainly overburdened by internal separatist instability and cross – border fighting with Afghanistan. Turkey, as a NATO country has other military obligations and its priority is likely strengthening the border with Syria. France’s direct involvement likely arrives as Europe’s energy landscape is heavily threatened by the war in Saudi Arabia. France is unlikely to join Saudi Arabia in offensive operations, however, its forces deployed to the region might be a legitimate target for the Houthis which would significantly complicate the regional warfare landscape. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to directly involve ground troops in the war in the short – term, however, following recent calls by religious clerics in the country, if the conflict is protracted towards the long – term, Saudi Arabia is likely to deploy ground military forces in Yemen. The conflict would highly likely escalate in the short to mid – term period causing devastating humanitarian and refugee crisis in Yemen and impacting global energy markets.