Description: US President Donald Trump announced that he officially rejects the latest Iranian peace proposal. Trump stated that Iran needed this deal more than the US currently as they were feeling the economic pressure of the US administration. Iran’s proposal outlined that Tehran was willing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the unfreezing of foreign assets, unblocking Iranian ports and lifting sanctions on oil sales. Trump also stated that a resumption of the US military campaign in Iran was the likely option after the US midterm elections. The proposal arrived after Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff at the UNGA, where they negotiated the latest developments of the war through Qatari and Pakistani mediators.
Impact: The Iranian proposal is highly likely an attempt to measure the negotiating temperature as both sides have entered an indefinite stagnant phase of the conflict where attacks have significantly subsided. Trump’s rejection is highly likely due to the reasoning that Iran would eventually succumb to the economic pressure and offer the US wide – ranging concession to negotiate a peace deal. Iran’s adaptiveness towards high level of economic sanctions is likely to result in further defiance to US counter proposals in the short to mid – term, as Iran is likely to count on Trump and the Republicans losing in the Nov midterms. Trump’s statement of renewed attacks after the midterms is likely a power – posturing move that is aimed at further pressuring the Iranians which is highly likely to backfire. Iran and the US would likely remain in the current stagnant phase of the war in the short – term with a likely possibility for military escalation in the mid – term in case the ongoing backchannel talks fail to produce any substantial results.