Description: The UK Metropolitan Police arrested five individuals under suspicion of terrorism and activities that could endanger the Royal Air Force base Fairford. The suspects were reportedly planning a bombing attack that was supposed to be launched from the nearby area of Whelford, before they were arrested. The Metropolitan Police established a 400 meter cordon around the area while more than 85 households were evacuated due to security precautions. News outlets filmed bomb disposal robots active at the scene, as the robots were inspecting three white vans that were used by the suspects. All five suspects were identified to have UK citizenship, raising concerns of domestically sponsored terrorism. Counterterrorism police forces were investigating potential ties between the suspects and known state actors that pose risk to the UK’s national security such as Iran and Russia. Prime Minister Burnham praised the police forces for their prompt action and warned the public against drawing any conclusions before the investigation is concluded.
Impact: The bombing plot on the RAF Fairford highly likely bears most of the hallmarks of a proxy attack from a domestic group sponsored by either state or non – state actor. RAF Fairford’s usage for aerial attacks on Iranian targets, likely positions Iran as the major state actor behind the attack. Russia has also been known to use domestic criminals for its hybrid attacks across Europe, however, a direct involvement from Moscow is unlikely currently, as it would dramatically escalate tensions between NATO and Russia. UK’s counterterrorism threat level is likely to be raised in the upcoming period, after the JTAC (Joint Terrorist Analysis Centre) conducts a wholesale intelligence assessment. Considering constant threats from Russia and Iran, the UK government is also likely to raise the level of preparedness to tackle and combat hybrid attacks and various other attacks on domestic soil, in coordination with EU and NATO partners.