Description: Members of EPFAS (Ethiopia’s Peoples Force Alliance for Survival) or the Alliance, claimed they have made significant gains fighting against the ENDF (Ethiopia’s National Defense Forces) between 25 and 27th of Sep. Separate reports indicate that most intense fighting was registered in the Afar and Amhara regions, more precisely in the cities of Abala, Weldiya and Lalibela. The ENDF on their part claimed to have killed more than 400 fighters from the Alliance and captured dozens of others while countering the Alliance’s offensive in the regions. On 25 Sep, Tigrayan telecom operators were disrupted by the TPLF due to fears of ENDF drone attacks and infiltrating the Alliance’s communications network. Conflicting reports emerge from Abiy’s government with one source claiming that the Prime Minister would like to avoid a direct confrontation with the Alliance, while another source claims that Abiy would be left without an option except to invade the entire Tigray region if the violence continues. The Alliance members have for their part announced that they are in an all – out war against the government.
Impact: Clashes between the Alliance forces and the ENDF are highly likely to intensify in the short – term, as the position from both warring parties remains defiant and extremely hostile. The Alliance forces are likely to weigh their military engagement against the ENDF depending on the military’s response, while the ENDF is likely to pursue a strategy of countering the Alliance forces without significant ground advances within the Tigray region in the short – term. So far, no internal rifts within the Alliance force have been reported which likely indicates that the seven armed groups are unified in their immediate objective, however, they have yet to outline a political platform and a concrete long – term anti – government strategy. Direct foreign interference at this stage of the conflict is unlikely, since foreign backers of the Alliance forces, such as Eritrea and Sudan, are likely to engage in the conflict depending on the tactical progress on the ground and their own national interests in the long – term period.