Description: The Ethiopian military has reported that it repelled a large – scale attack by the EPFAS alliance forces in the North Wollo region, where up to 270 rebel soldiers were eliminated. The rapid escalation arrives after the TPLF seized three airports in the Tigray region. Unconfirmed reports claim that the TPLF launched ground offensives in the Amhara and Afar regions alongside local partners. The Ethiopian government issued travel bans to the Tigray region and suspended all flights towards the captured airport while militarily containing the rebel forces in the Amhara region. According to statements from TPLF spokesperson, the organization was engaged in a full – scale war with the Ethiopian government forces. When asked whether the TPLF was receiving active support from Eritrea, the spokesperson claimed that the TPLF is yet to request support from Eritrea.
Impact: The reported clashes in the Amhara region are highly likely the ENDF’s military response to the TPLF’s capture of the airports in the Tigray region. The number of initial casualties likely confirms the ENDF’s military predominance over the rebel alliance which would likely result in the TPLF and its allies adopting a guerilla – style warfare tactics in the short – term. The conflict’s rapid escalation in armed hostilities likely suggests that fighting would continue and potentially spread territorially in the Amhara and Tigray regions in the short – term. Both sides likely possess vast strategic depth in the short to mid – term period. The ENDF could opt towards launching a coordinated offensive in the north or maintaining containment operations in the Amhara and Tigray regions. The rebel alliance could likely opt towards a strategy of local entrenchment, banking on support from foreign actors or avoiding direct armed confrontations with the superior ENDF by waging asymmetrical warfare on home turf. All indicators point towards immediate escalation of the conflict where numerous foreign actors such as Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Turkey play key roles. The diplomatic track for resolving the dispute likely remains marginalized in the short – term, however, it remains an active avenue for reconciliation in the mid to long – term period.