Description: US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham met while attending the UNGA, where one of the main topics of discussion was the Chagos Islands deal. Under the current provisions, the UK agreed to hand over the islands to Mauritius and pay an annual fee of $136 million for leasing back the Diego Garcia airbase which is under US administration. Trump labeled the agreement terrible while Burnham confirmed that the UK is actively reviewing its commitments and manages all sides of the agreement. Burnham also confirmed that he discussed the deal with Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam, where he confirmed that the current formulation of the agreement was being reviewed. The previous deal also failed to gain support from the UK Parliament, where members of it argued that the UK would be forced to pay billions of dollars considering the inflationary pressures of the economy. The UK is bound to respect an ICJ court decision from 2019, where the Court stated that UK’s separation of the Chagos Islands from Mauritius in 1965 was unlawful. Members of the opposition in the UK Parliament have raised concerns that handing over the islands to Mauritius and paying the country for maintaining military presence at Diego Garcia gives substantial leverage to China which is a close ally to Mauritius and exercises lengthy amount of soft power in the country.
Impact: The Chagos Islands agreement will highly likely remain a prolonged issue that could potentially strain the already fragile bilateral relations between the UK and the US. The meeting between Burnham and Trump likely refreshed the initiative to review the agreement and the US is highly likely going to insist for the deal to be completely scrapped. The UK is likely in a precarious position as it needs to maintain its stable strategic partnership with the US, manage a potential territorial crisis with Mauritius and prevent China from furthering its regional interests. The original agreement is likely to be modified in order to primarily accommodate US interests while also giving Mauritius a dose of territorial sovereignty over the islands. The Diego Garcia airbase, which is central to the agreement, is likely to remain under joint UK – US administration, due its vital strategic role in the Indian Ocean in the long – term.