Description: The Houthis have continued their ground offensive towards the eastern city of Marib and in the southern provinces of Taiz and Lahj. After the lightning offensive in the past month and a half, the Houthis continue to pursue territorial expansion against the Saudi – backed government forces based in Aden. The latest offensive includes advancements towards the Kahboub mountain range, which is tactically vital for controlling logistical corridors, monitoring troop movement from Aden and overseeing the control on the Red Sea coast. Saudi Arabia continues to have difficulties in countering the offensives as local militias are either overwhelmed, underequipped or demotivated by the Houthis’ advancements in the past couple of weeks. UK’s Prime Minister Andy Burnham, stated that RAF (Royal Air Force) planes would be used for refueling the Saudi airplanes operating in the theater for a limited period of time after Saudi Arabia called for support against the Houthis. Saudi Arabia also announced the restart of operations on the East – West pipeline and the Yanbu oil terminal after it was damaged earlier this month The war has caused a spiraling humanitarian crisis where 22 million people are in need of humanitarian aid while 5.2 million are internally displaced.
Impact: The Houthis are highly likely to continue their ground offensive in the short to mid – term period in order to force Saudi Arabia to effectively capitulate to their demands for economic reparations and political legitimacy. Saudi Arabia’s reliance on local militias and Yemen’s government troops is highly likely ineffective against the continued incursions launched by the Houthis which likely indicates that within months Saudi Arabia would be forced to intensively seek a diplomatic reconciliation with the Houthis. Capturing the Kahboub mountains would likely enable the Houthis to have further tactical and strategic advantage in the war and push the Saudis further towards pursuing a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. The UK’s involvement is likely an act of pragmatic temporary support, after Saudi Arabia initially threatened to cut oil supplies for the next two months to Europe and then announced that the East – West pipeline is operational alongside the Yanbu terminal. The humanitarian crisis is likely to deteriorate further as Houthi advances combined with Saudi airstrikes are likely to continue in the short – term.