Description: Seven armed groups fighting an anti – government internal insurgency announced a military alliance against the Ethiopian government. The Tigray’s Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), the Benishangul People’s Liberation Movement (BPLM), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF), the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Gumuz People’s Democratic Movement (GPDM) jointly form the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS). The groups which come from distinct ethnic backgrounds and even fought one another in the past decade, allege that Abiy Ahmed’s government has marginalized the groups, oppressed the regions they inhabit and blocked their political power. Spokesperson for the government, Billene Seyoum, has stated that all of these groups are militarily and financially supported by Ethiopia’s longstanding regional adversary – Eritrea and that the government was fully aware the groups were cooperating and preparing a joint military front. Ethiopia is a key Chinese ally in the region, while the US through the lifting of sanctions on Eritrea’s government is looking to establish a renewed regional partnership.
Impact: The EPFAS is most likely an attempt by the smaller insurgent groups to nominally consolidate forces against the dominant state military in an attempt to tackle Abiy Ahmed’s government. The EPFAS is unlikely to succeed in mounting a serious opposition force in the short – term, considering historic grievances, ethnic differences and distinct separatist objectives that all of the groups pursue. The TPLF are likely to be more active in the short – term in terms of limited incursions in north Ethiopia, which is likely to present the EPFAS with its first test of unity, considering that the ENDF would be forced to intervene. Ethiopia has been a traditional partner of China in the region, while the US has most recently lifted sanctions on the government of Ethiopia’s fierce rival, Eritrea, in order to pursue national interests in the Red Sea. The lifting of sanctions is highly likely an attempt to counteract Chinese influence and presence in the Horn of Africa where key trade routes and resource rich regions dictate strategic partnerships. Considering this, there is minimal potential for the US to establish some form of military, logistical or financial backing for the separatists in Ethiopia using Eritrea as a proxy force, which makes the option of infighting between the ENDF and the EPFAS highly likely in the mid to long – term.