Description: Yemen’s Houthi rebels continued engaging targets deep into Saudi Arabia, targeting the capital Riyadh with ballistic missiles. Saudi Arabia stated that its King Khalid International airport sustained damage and flight disruptions were reported, however, the majority of the missiles were intercepted. The Houthis and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in a direct conflict since Jul, when Saudi Arabian air forces bombed the airport in Sana’a upon the arrival of an Iranian delegation into the city. Ever since, the Houthis through a rapid ground and aerial offensive managed to capture the Bab El Mandeb Strait, the key port of Mocha and Perim Island in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia recently contacted China in order to request for the Houthis to be reined in, since China is one of the major strategic partners of Iran. The US, meanwhile, engaged the Houthis directly, holding meetings in Muscat, Oman, where Houthi officials discussed the current situation with US officials. Despite Turkey and Pakistan’s statements of support, the Mecca defense allies are yet to involve themselves directly in the conflict.
Impact: Saudi Arabia’s direct contact with China and the US’ direct diplomatic engagement with the Houthis highly likely indicates that backchannel talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are active, mediated from different angles primarily by the US and China. Saudi Arabia’s inability to wage asymmetrical warfare with the Houthis is likely to pressure the country into pursuing a diplomatic track of reconciliation with the Houthis or at least the return of the status quo. Saudi Arabia could also attempt at forming a military alliance against the Houthis, however, the ineffectiveness of the Mecca defense agreement makes that scenario unlikely under the current conditions. The Houthis have made significant gains in the past two months and are likely to demand heavy guarantees if they were to agree to a ceasefire, such as political legitimacy and economic and military aid. The involvement from China and the US is likely unrelated, however, it has the same strategic goal in preventing escalation and the blockade of another critical energy maritime route. The conflict is highly likely going to continue in the short to mid – term period, potentially expanding in the long – term, depending on the outcome of the war between the US and Iran as well as mediation efforts and other forms of involvement from regional and international countries.