Description: Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) have conducted several drone strikes in the Al – Zawiya Gara village located in North Darfur State, killing 35 people and injuring dozens more. Emergency Lawyers, an independent group following the civil war in Sudan, has stated that both the SAF and the RSF (Rapid Support Forces), have conducted war crimes in their conflict through deliberate targeting of the civilian population. The most recent fighting focused in North Kordofan, where the SAF through consecutive rapid intervention operations in Bara, Jabra Al – Sheikh and Um Sayala regained territorial control. SAF managed to alleviate the pressure on the besieged city of El – Obeid and reestablish control on the roads connecting Omdurman and El – Obeid with Khartoum. Diplomatic efforts to bring about the 90 – day humanitarian truce has stalled through several tracks, such as US diplomatic campaign and the separate negotiations that took place in Addis Ababa between the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the European Union and the League of Arab States.
Impact: SAF’s recent field successes are likely to poise the military to even further pressure the RSF through maximalist demands which would likely further deteriorate the international diplomatic efforts to end the war. Recent armed clashes in Ethiopia between the ENDF (Ethiopian National Defense Forces) and the TPLF (Tigray’s People’s Liberation Front) likely increase the possibility of the conflict in Sudan, merging with the separatist conflict in Ethiopia between several separatist militias and the national military. Ethiopia is a known state sponsor of the RSF as the two share a common backer in the UAE. The Emirates could likely put pressure on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed if they assess that the RSF is losing ground to the SAF in Sudan to reignite the conflict with the TPLF and create several fronts on the Sudan – Ethiopia border. This would likely stretch SAF’s capabilities to fight the RSF, insurgent groups on the border and possibly even the ENDF. The prospects for an all – out war are currently unlikely and heavily dependent on Ethiopia’s management of its domestic separatist tensions. The war in Sudan is highly likely poised to continue in the short to mid – term, with the diplomatic track losing traction, while confrontational stances are rising on both sides.