Description: Ukraine and Russia continued exchanging long – range drone and missiles strikes causing further civilian death, infrastructure and economic damage to each other. Ukraine’s targeted attacks on Russia’s biggest e – commerce retailer, Wildberries, in the city of Elektrostal near Moscow, is estimated to have created immense dents into Russia’s economic interests. Wildberries brings about 8.5% of Russia’s entire GDP, employs over 4 million people and has a distribution network spanning over 5 million square kilometers. Ukraine also continued targeting Russian oil tankers and refineries located on the Black Sea but also struck a beach packed with civilians in the Krasnodar region, killing seven people and injuring 50 more. Russia responded with attacks on the city of Sumy, Mykolaiv, where five people were killed and additionally struck up to seven cargo vessels in Mykolaiv. As Ukraine’s attacks intensified over the past couple of months, Russia has reportedly imposed fuel restrictions in 54 of its border and Caspian Sea regions.
Impact: Ukraine has highly likely shifted its strategy from frontline maneuvers towards inflicting economic and infrastructure damage on Russian critical capacities. Russia’s economy, even though in a difficult position, is likely to absorb these damages in the short – term. Depending on Ukraine’s sustainment of its long – range attacks on critical infrastructure, Russia is most likely going to be affected economically in the long – term. The prospect of political pressure or civil unrest in Russia due to the fuel restrictions is currently low. Russia is likely to focus on long – range ballistic missile attacks in the short – term as a responsive tactic to Ukraine’s targeting of its critical infrastructure. Ukraine likely holds the current tactical advantage in the war, however, it might be short – lived in case Ukraine’s European allies and the US fail to step in, providing Kyiv with enough interceptors to counter Russia’s ballistic missile campaign. Diplomatic efforts surrounding the war have completely stalled and considering the developments on the battlefield, the status quo in the war is likely going to be enforced in the short to mid – term period.