Description: Iran and Oman have announced that a potential bilateral agreement for the management of the Strait of Hormuz between the two countries was in its final stages. US President Donald Trump’s recent statements indicated that the US has canceled attacks on Iran due to ongoing talks, something the Iranian speaker of Parliament, Esmael Baghaei has renounced. Trump threatened larger scale of attacks on Iran and stated that decapitation assassinations were also a current military option. Iran denounced their administration is in ongoing talks with the US, instead it stated that direct negotiations with Oman are ongoing to achieve a potential agreement on the management privileges of the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen’s Houthi rebels continued to attack Saudi ships in and near the Bab El Mandeb Strait, stretching the conflict zones even further. The group reinstated the possibility of attacking critical oil transporting infrastructure in Saudi Arabia such as the country’s East – West oil pipeline, which is key in Saudi Arabia’s attempt to bypass transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s and Iran’s bilateral agreement reportedly contained entry approvals which would be conducted by Iran and exit approvals from the Strait conducted by Oman, with fees that ensure security and uninterrupted navigation.
Impact: The diplomatic stalemate after the collapse of the previous MoU between Iran and the US is likely going to continue in the short – term coupled with escalatory exchange of military strikes. The US is unlikely to concede the administration of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, while Iran is unlikely to agree to concessions which would eliminate the Strait as a strategically advantageous asset in the war. The Houthis are likely to continue to calibrate their attacks on Saudi infrastructure in the short – term, considering their aerial capabilities and capacities, further elevating the shipping risks in the Bab El Mandeb and the Suez Canal. The US is unlikely to resort towards renewed decapitation campaign considering Iran’s proven ability to reconstruct its political and military architecture and pivot towards an even more aggressive and radical stance. Decapitation attacks would highly likely undermine all diplomatic traction achieved so far in the numerous negotiation tracks and risk internal instability in Iran in the long – term which would permanently destabilize the region. Backchannel talks between the US and Iran are likely going to continue in the short – term with medium scale prospects for a breakthrough which likely indicates continued military operations in the form of air strikes in the short – term. Considering Qatar’s comments on the prospects for an immediate agreement, there is also a likely possibility for extending the provisions of the previous MoU, solely focusing on the Strait of Hormuz in the immediate term. Another comprehensive agreement or substitute of the MoU is unlikely in the immediate – term period.