Description: The US and Iran exchanged aerial attacks with Israel continuing its ground invasion in Lebanon and operations against Hezbollah. Iran claimed its attacks were purely retaliatory and arrived after the US targeted radar sites on the Qeshm and Goruk islands in an apparent attempt to disable Iranian tracking capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC claimed the attacks and stated they would further escalate in case the US holds Israel responsible for its ceasefire violations in Lebanon. President Trump has stated that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon were not sanctioned or coordinated with the US while stating that return to war is not in Iran’s best interest at the moment. Multilateral diplomatic efforts remain active, as Pakistani Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi, arrived in Tehran to deliver a special letter from Field Marshal Asim Munir to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Impact: The present escalation highly likely further strains the commitments made within the ceasefire framework and would likely force both the US and Iran to entrench their negotiating positions in the immediate term. Israel’s disregard for the ceasefire in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s rejection of the same likely catalyzed the present aerial attacks and missile exchanges. Backchannel diplomacy remains highly likely active, with Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia all weighing in on maintaining the fragile ceasefire. Iran’s attacks are likely to cease in the short – term, while Israel is likely to continue undermining the US efforts to bring the war to a close. Mediation countries and representatives are likely to be faced with mounting political pressure from both sides as Iran and the US are likely to remain into a highly adversarial stance.