Description: JNIM has continued to lay siege on Mali’s capital, Bamako, cutting off energy supplies and trade, effectively freezing all economic processes in the city. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) released a prisoners of war video from an undisclosed location where more than 130 soldiers captured in Kidal during the joint offensive with JNIM were held. FLA has stated that the soldiers would remain in their captivity as potential bargaining chips in any potential dialogue with Mali’s military government. Clashes have largely dialed down across the country with much of the north and southeastern parts falling under the control of JNIM and the FLA.
Impact: JNIM’s blockade on the capital is likely to continue as Mali’s military alongside the Africa Corps seem unable to launch a counteroffensive which would reinstate control over Bamako. The captured soldiers by the FLA are do not only represent leverage over Mali’s military but are likely perceived as proof for FLA’s successful offensive against Mali’s military junta. JNIM’s and FLA’s partnership of convenience continues although in the long – term tensions are likely to surge as both groups have diverging objectives which they would like to achieve by toppling the military junta. The situation on the ground would likely remain volatile as the siege on Bamako continues, while in the short – term there are no current indications of renewed large – scale operations.