Description: After an entire weekend of diplomatic posturing, Iran has stated that no negotiating team would be sent on Monday to Islamabad to reinstitute the peace talks with the US. The US and Iran exchanged blame over the weekend for disrupting the previously agreed opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while US Marines boarded an Iranian vessel, the Touska, late on Sunday, reigniting bilateral tensions. Many points of contention remained unresolved after the first round of negotiations with diplomatic rifts escalating rapidly. European diplomats involved in conceptualizing the JCPOA, have stated that a nuclear deal with Iran has to be carefully curated and negotiated by competent diplomats who need to replace the current US negotiating team. The ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel also hung by a thread as several violations were reported on both sides over the weekend with a French peacekeeper being killed reportedly by Hezbollah. Pakistan remained convinced that the second round of negotiations would happen as security measures were being undertaken late on Sunday in Islamabad.
Impact: The capture of the Iranian vessel by US forces combined with hostile narrative from both countries likely signifies that the second round of negotiations would be either canceled entirely or postponed indefinitely. US President Trump through threatening public statements and unilateral imposition of negotiating conditions is negatively impacting the peace platform by pushing aside Iran’s interests and position in both the war and the peace negotiations. Iran’s radical elements are likely dictating the country’s positioning in the negotiations as the Iranian narrative continues to translate towards a zero-sum game. Pakistan would likely be able to tamper down the recent flare up and push for a second round of negotiations, however, major differences are unlikely to be surmounted any time soon. Immediate escalation is not expected, however, in case the state of the negotiations continues to deteriorate, return to war is the likeliest scenario, which would even further negatively impact the global economy as the conflict rapidly expands in the region.