Description: Entering the sixth week of the war in Iran, US special forces conducted a successful combat rescue operation near Isfahan of the two F – 15E pilots downed late last week. One of the pilots was rescued early after the downing of the fighter jet while the weapons operator was rescued a day and a half later by American special forces. Also, late last week, US intelligence assessments estimated that Iran’s ballistic missile and drone attacking stockpile remained heavily potent despite almost 40 days of constant bombardment from US and Israeli forces. President Trump over the weekend reiterated threats of escalation, claiming that US air forces would move towards targeting critical infrastructure in case Iran continued to refuse the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan has enhanced its mediation efforts claiming to have delivered a concrete ceasefire proposal to both sides for ending the ongoing hostilities.
Impact: The US rescue operation represented a practical probe for American ground operations in Iran, which could set the course for another special operation of strategic value where islands such as Kharg or Iran’s nuclear stockpile could be the potential targets. The operation also demonstrated that, despite ruling the air above Iran, US fighter jets and aircraft remain vulnerable and ground operations still remain an extremely high-risk endeavor. Intelligence assessments from the US regarding the ballistic missile and attack drones stockpiles demonstrate that despite sustaining massive damages on its defensive and offensive capabilities, Iran remains capable of waging continued asymmetric warfare campaign against US and Israeli forces at least in the mid – term. Pakistan’s mediation efforts are unlikely to deliver any progress on the diplomatic front as mutual trust is completely shattered, and Iran has repeatedly refused to negotiate unilateral concessions without prior guarantees for complete cessation of the war.