Description: South Sudan’s People Defense Forces (SSPDF) as the official military of the country has announced the commencement of the operation Enduring Freedom against rebel forces loyal to former Vice – President Riek Machar in the state of Jonglei. Clashes erupted earlier this month between the SSPDF and the military wing of the SPLA – IO (Sudan’s People’s Liberation Army in Opposition) accompanied by antagonizing rhetoric by senior military figures who have called for the indiscriminate killing of civilians. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has reported that the humanitarian situation has been deteriorating consistently over the past month while more than 180 thousand civilians have been displaced due to the escalating violence. The military additionally issued evacuation orders on 27 Jan for the counties of Nyirol, Uror and Akobo as it announced the operation Enduring Peace. Earlier this month, the SPLA – IO announced that the provisions from the 2018 peace agreement were nullified since the sitting government in the country used political repression and military power to stifle dissent in the country.
Impact: The most recent uptick in military clashes in South Sudan could eventually result in the reignition of the civil war conflict from 2013, however, the immediate effect would be the overwhelming response of the military which is expected to counteract the rebel forces without any difficulties. Political power struggles and interethnic tensions would continue to dominate the confrontational narrative that translates into armed clashes on the ground in the short – term. Due to President Salva Kiir’s repressive tactics and modus of governance, the opposition forces could mount a stronger offensive in the mid – term, since the mobilization of armed forces could be articulated through the ethnic animosities persisting in the country. The prospect of returning to violence on the scale reminiscent of the civil war in the country is highly unlikely at present time due to the operational asymmetries of the conflict and the military’s overwhelming force over the rebel forces’ capacities. Tensions would continue to simmer as several flashpoints of armed confrontation are expected to appear over the next couple of weeks, further aggravating the situation between the military and the rebel forces.